Blog #4 Electoral Connection

Mayhew’s Argument

In The Electoral Connection by David R. Mayhew, Mayhew argues that members of congress are single minded seekers of reelection. To facilitate the goal of reelection, the author describes three types of activities that congressmen engage in: advertising, credit claiming and position taking. Each of these activities is important for congressmen to stay connected with their constituents and seen in a favorable image. Their reward is reelection.  

Advertising

Mayhew defined advertising in congress as an effort to disseminate a name, create a favorable image, and do so without much content. Congressman Ed Perlmutter advertises by sending out bi-monthly newsletters to his constituents. The newsletter consists of current issues as well as how Perlmutter is representing Colorado’s 7^th District on these issues. Furthermore, the newsletter contains upcoming events such as town halls and ceremonies at which Perlmutter will be in attendance. http://perlmutter.house.gov/news/email/

In 2016, Perlmutter spent $17,217.38 on franked mail. Around 3 percent of his total budget was spent mailing out letter and flyers for advertising. He also spent $24,171.54 on travel expenses— flying back and forth between Washington D.C. and Colorado. Below is a statement of his total disbursements in 2016.

FRANKED MAIL .......................................................................................................17,217.38

PERSONNEL COMPENSATION ..............................................................................433,791.22

TRAVEL .....................................................................................................................24,171.54

RENT, COMMUNICATION, UTILITIES .................................................................59,045.86

PRINTING AND REPRODUCTION ........................................................................16,932.49

OTHER SERVICES ...................................................................................................12,465.00

SUPPLIES AND MATERIALS .................................................................................12,833.31

EQUIPMENT .............................................................................................................1,327.50

OFFICIAL EXPENSES OF MEMBERS TOTALS: 577,784.30

OFFICE TOTALS: 577,784.30

http://disbursements.house.gov/2016q2/2016q2_singlevolume.pdf

Credit Claiming

The definition of credit claiming is creating the belief that an individual is personally responsible for a result that is considered important to voters. Congressman Perlmutter claimed credit for bipartisan legislation that “clarifies the sharing of information between federal and state regulator that license, supervise or examine consumer financial products or services”. As a member of the Financial Services Committee, Perlmutter drafted the legislation and helped get it signed into law. Membership on the committee as well as active participation on the bill allows Perlmutter to claim credit to his constituents. http://perlmutter.house.gov/committees/financial-services-committee.htm

Position Taking

Simply put, position taking is an individual taking a stance. A recent example of Rep. Perlmutter position taking can be found in a press release on January 25, 2017 in which Perlmutter responds to Trump’s Anti-Immigration Executive Orders. Perlmutter criticizes the Trump administration and says that…   

“Instead of building walls we should be building economic opportunity in our communities. We should be focusing on comprehensive immigration reform which creates American jobs, lowers our deficit, strengthens our borders, and gives millions of undocumented Americans an earned pathway to citizenship.” http://perlmutter.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=1579

Perlmutter’s stance on immigration is predominately supported by the 7^th district. It is also a safe political stance considering the backlash that was triggered in Colorado following the signing of the executive order.

Quiz:

Can you guess who is Rep. Ed Perlmutter and who is actor Jason Lee (star of tv series "My name is Earl")?

  

Here is a link to a Denver post article describing multiple time that Ed Perlmutter has been referred to as "Earl" Perlmutter in the news.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2010/09/07/perlmutter-my-name-is-not-earl/14451/

Blog #3 Electoral Circumstances

Colorado's 7th Congressional District

Last Election

[hide]U.S. House, Colorado District 7 General Election, 2016
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Ed Perlmutter Incumbent	55.2%	199,758
	Republican	George Athanasopoulos	39.8%	144,066
	Libertarian	Martin Buchanan	5%	18,186
Total Votes				362,010
Source: Colorado Secretary of State
https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2016#Election_results

2018 Election Outlook

Heading into the 2018 election, the incumbents for the seven congressional districts of Colorado consist of four Republicans and three Democrats. Each of the incumbents has also announced plans to run for reelection. Among these incumbents is Democrat Ed Perlmutter from the 7^th District. Currently, there are no challengers to Perlmutter in the primary election. This is not particularly surprising given the status of the six-term House incumbent. There have also been no Republican candidates to formally declare to run against Perlmutter in the 2018 general election.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Colorado,_2018

Current Prediction

I anticipate that Ed Perlmutter will have a relatively safe path to reelection in 2018. This conclusion is based on two primary reasons. First, Ed Perlmutter has gained a highly popular reputation within the 7^th District. Living his entire life in Jefferson County, Perlmutter is seen by voters as one of their own. Perlmutter continues this strong relationship by consistently traveling from Washington D.C. back to Colorado to stay in touch with his constituents.  Second, the 7^th Congressional District has been realigned and reapportioned to a point that it would be difficult for any Republican to win. The Democratic leaning district gives Perlmutter a distinct advantage in 2018.

                                                     

Campaign Finance Status

Ed Perlmutter is affiliated with the official PAC known as “EDPAC”. Below is the 2016 PAC summary data of EDPAC.

Top of Form

Select a Cycle:                                                                                                                                          2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998

Bottom of Form

Total Receipts	$241,500
Total Spent	$224,258
Begin Cash on Hand	$18,848
End Cash on Hand	$36,089
Debts	$0
Date of last report	December 31, 2016

https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/lookup2.php?strID=C00467837

Beginning in 2012, EDPAC received an increasing number of contributions throughout each election. I anticipate that there will be even more contributions for the 2018 election than in 2016. Contributions are also being made for the 2018 election through the Perlmutter for Colorado website.

http://www.perlmutterforcolorado.com/

Major Issues

In the 2016 election, there was a total of nine ballot measures—two legislative referrals and seven initiatives. Issues on the ballot included minimum wage, healthcare, tobacco, assisted death, and direct democracy. https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_2016_ballot_measures

This an indication of the types of issues which are important to Colorado voters. Some issues that are specifically important to the 7^th District, according to Congressman Perlmutter, are gun control, infrastructure, aerospace engineering and space program development and student debt.

http://westminsterwindow.com/stories/Perlmutter-doesnt-take-re-election-for-granted,234099

Blog #2 District Profile

Colorado’s 7^th Congressional District

About the 7^th District

Colorado’s 7^th Congressional District includes the Northern and Western Suburbs of the Denver Metro. It covers the North half of Jefferson County and the West half of Adams County. The major cities are Golden, Lakewood, Arvada and Westminster. This geographical area is home to a variety of industries. Such industries include “aerospace, aviation, banking and finance, beverage production, cleantech, health and wellness, energy development, manufacturing, and pharmaceutical and biotechnology”. http://perlmutter.house.gov/district/interactivemap.htm

Furthermore, Adams County and Jefferson County both have an educated workforce, low operational costs and a competitive environment. Thus, both counties are home to many successful businesses in the previously mentioned industries. A few of the primary employers are Lockheed Martin (aerospace and defense systems), MillerCoors Brewing Company (beverages) and Kaiser Permanente (medical services).

http://www.jeffcoedc.org/topemployers.asp

Party Affiliation

The 7^th District was originally drawn 50/50 between Republicans and Democrats. However, following the realignment and reapportionment of Colorado’s Districts, the 7^th shifted towards the more populated Jefferson County, giving the district a slightly democratic lean. This democratic tendency can be seen in the continued re-election of Democrat Ed Perlmutter. Furthermore, in the 2016 presidential election, a majority of Colorado’s 7^th Congressional District voted for Hillary Clinton. http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

In fact, this district has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 2004. An illustration depicting the district’s voting history can be seen in Table 1.

Table 1

Election results from presidential races
Year	Office	Results
2004	President	Kerry 51 - 48%
2008	President	Obama 59 - 40%
2012	President	Obama 56 - 41%
2016	President	Clinton 51 – 39%

http://swingstateproject.com/diary/4161

Important Policy Issues

·       Energy

·       Transportation

·       Health Care

·       Education

Demographics

Sex and Age

Total population: 777,970 

Male: 386,717 

Female: 391,253 

10 to 14 years: 50,193 

15 to 19 years: 47,430

20 to 24 years: 52,170 

25 to 34 years: 121,882 

35 to 44 years: 106,203 

45 to 54 years: 100,544 

55 to 59 years: 52,959 

60 to 64 years: 44,668 

65 to 74 years: 58,020 

75 to 84 years: 28,082 

85 years and over: 13,842 

Median age (years): 36.1 

18 years and over: 595,580 

65 years and over: 99,944 

Race

Total population: 777,970 

One race: 751,720 

White: 680,224 

Black or African American: 14,640 

American Indian and Alaska Native: 7,074 

Asian: 25,368 

Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander: 411 

Some other race: 24,003 

Income and Benefits (In 2015 inflation-adjusted dollars)

Total households: 290,805

Less than $10,000: 11,339

$10,000 to $14,999: 9,882

$15,000 to 24,999: 23,747

$25,000 to $34,999: 22,845

$35,000 to $49,999: 45,319

$50,000 to $74,999: 58,467

$75,000 to $99,999: 40,564

$100,000 to $149,999 : 45,605

$150,000 to $199,999 : 18,799

$200,000 or more: 14,238

Median household income (dollars): $62,330

Mean household income (dollars): $80,613

Source: 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates http://www.census.gov/mycd/application/#sthash.JdfZBdSZ.dpuf

Blog #1: Member Profile

U.S. Representative for Colorado’s 7^th Congressional District: Ed Perlmutter

                                                          

Born: May 1, 1953

Residence: Arvada, Colorado

Family:

Perlmutter has three children. He chose to raise his family in the 7^th Congressional District and all three of his daughters attended Jefferson County Public Schools. Perlmutter and his first wife, Deana, divorced in 2008. A few years later, he married an Arvada school teacher named Nancy Henderson. The wedding came shortly after Perlmutter’s 11-point victory in the 2010 Congressional Election. Nancy also has three adult children. -http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2010/11/25/perlmutters-getting-married-on-friday/18965/

Political Party: Democratic

Religious Affiliation: Protestant Christian

Education:

B.A. University of Colorado (1975), J.D. University of Colorado (1978)

Career:

Ed Perlmutter worked as a laborer on construction projects during his summers in college and law school. After graduating law school, he practiced business law with a local law firm for 25 years.

Tenure/ Previous Elected Experience:

Ed Perlmutter has been representing the 7^th Congressional District of Colorado since 2006 and is currently serving his fifth term in office. He first won the seat by soundly defeating Rick O’Donnell and helping Democrats to regain the majority in the House. Perlmutter continued to be victorious and won difficult races despite the gerrymandering which preceded the 2012 election. The 7^th district boundaries were drawn to be 4 percent less Democratic. Despite this disadvantage, Perlmutter managed to defeat Republican nominee Joe Coors Jr. He went on to defeat Don Ytterberg in 2014 and George Athanasopoulos in 2016.

As an experienced member of Congress, Perlmutter works persistently to get things done for Colorado. But, to make progress, Perlmutter strongly believes that both major parties must work together. Thus, during his tenure, Perlmutter has garnered a reputation as one the of the most bipartisan members of Congress. Working in a bipartisan manner has allowed him to achieve many of his goals in Congress. Primarily, fighting to make sure good jobs remain in the 7^th district. For instance Perlmutter is working to protect employees at the National Renewable Energy Lab in Golden as well as employees building the Orion Space Capsule in Jefferson County. -http://perlmutter.house.gov/about/biography.htm

Committee/Subcommittee:

Perlmutter currently sits on the House Committee on Financial Services

Sponsored Legislation:

Permutter was the primary sponsor of 2 bills that were enacted:

• ·       H.R. 5062 (113th): Examination and Supervisory Privilege Parity Act of 2014
• ·       H.R. 4240 (110th): To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 10799 West Alameda Avenue in Lakewood, Colorado, as the “Felix Sparks Post Office Building”.

Perlmutter’s most recently sponsored Bills:

• ·       H.R. 6032 (114th): Data Breach Insurance Act
• ·       H.R. 5438 (114th): Foreign Business Bribery Prohibition Act of 2016
• ·       H.R. 4647 (114th): Traditional Banking Regulatory Relief Act of 2015
• ·       H.R. 4574 (114th): Helicopter Fuel System Safety Act
• ·       H.R. 4573 (114th): Lap Children Safety Research Act
• ·       H.Res. 614 (114th): Honoring the Denver Broncos on their victory in Super Bowl 50.
• ·       H.J.Res. 60 (114th): Expressing support for designation of a “National Lao-Hmong Recognition Day”.

-https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/ed_perlmutter/412192

ADA and Interest Group Scores: Perlmutter has primarily sponsored bills in Housing and Community Development as well the Financial Sector.  In Votesmart.org, which provides interest group’s rankings of politicians in various years, Perlmutter was given a 100 percent by the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. The National Journal-Conservative on Economic Policy scored Perlmutter with a 38 percent and the National Journal-Liberal on Economic Policy scored him with a 62 percent. -http://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/2653/ed-perlmutter#.WJyGvPkrI2w

Crossing Party Lines on Any Issues: The 7^th Congressional District is the state’s most competitive and Perlmutter votes along party lines 86 percent of the time.

Fun Facts:

·       Perlmutter has lived his whole life in Jefferson County (Colorado’s 7^th District)

·       He regularly holds meetings at local grocery stores

·       Perlmutter has knocked on 1401 doors since January 2015. His goal to personally visit 2000 constituents.

Recent Awards:

• 2015: Friend of the National Parks Award by the National Parks Conservation Association
• 2014: Distinguished Advocate by the National Association of Community Health Centers
• 2014: Metro West Housing Solutions – Legislator of the Year

What People Are Saying About Ed Perlmutter:

"Ed Perlmutter fights for what we value. In Jeffco, he stood side by side with parents and community members to keep our public schools public and out of the hands of the Koch brothers. In Washington, he works with his colleagues on both sides of the aisle to find common ground and fresh approaches to solve complex problems. He’s also a tireless champion for equal rights. His leadership gets results that benefit us all." -Lesley Dahlkemper, past president and former member of the Jefferson County School Board,

"I’m endorsing Ed Perlmutter because he’s a streetfighter. When we were working on comprehensive immigration reform here in the state of Colorado, when we were working to turn that tide, there were some Democrats who were trying to hide in the shadows – but not Ed. Ed came straight forward with us, stood side by side with us to make sure we reverse the voice of anti-immigration sentiment here in the state of Colorado." -State Rep. Joe Salazar (D-Thornton)

"There really is no one, day in and day out, who works harder for the people of Colorado than Ed Perlmutter. It is a pleasure and a privilege to serve with him." -Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO),

Welcome To Colorful Colorado “The Centennial State”

                          

Capital: Denver

Total population: 4,301,261

Background:

U.S. President Ulysses S. Grant signed a proclamation admitting Colorado to the Union as the 38th state on August 1, 1876. Colorado is nicknamed the "Centennial State" because it became a state in the centennial year of the United States Declaration of Independence.

-http://coloradofacts.facts.co/funcoloradofactsabout/coloradofacts.php

Racial Composition:

• ·       White: 3,560,005
• ·       Black or African American: 165,063
• ·       American Indian and Alaska Native: 44,241         
• ·       Asian: 95,213
• ·       Hispanic or Latino (of any race)  735,601                           
• ·      Some other race             364,846

Video Tour of Colorado:

-https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emib9479jJQ

Fun Facts:

• ·       Katherine Lee Bates wrote 'America the Beautiful' after being inspired by the view from Pikes Peak
• ·       Colorado is the only U.S. state that's ever turned down a chance to host Olympics.
• ·       Denver claims to have invented the cheeseburger.